As TikTok faces an imminent shutdown in the United States, the popular mobile app finds itself at the intersection of national security concerns, constitutional challenges, and political maneuvering. With over 170 million American users, the stakes couldn’t be higher for both the platform and its dedicated user base.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket reveal sentiments about the TikTok ban. As of January 16 at 1:50 pm, the odds of whether TikTok will be banned in the U.S. by May 2025 are 70% on Kalshi[1] and 72% on Polymarket.[2]
TikTok has a path forward, but it is narrow. The immediate challenge lies in the Supreme Court’s pending decision on whether to grant an administrative stay of the shutdown scheduled for January 19. The Supreme Court’s oral arguments on January 10, 2025 indicated alignment with the D.C. Circuit Court’s December ruling that national security and data collection concerns justify the restrictions. This development suggests an uphill battle for TikTok, which has announced it would shut down U.S. operations on January 15 in anticipation of the deadline.
Donald Trump’s amicus brief argued for a stay based on the “arbitrary” implementation date.[3] However, even as Trump returns to office, his ability to reverse course through executive action would be significantly constrained by the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (Pub. L. No. 118-50), which explicitly identifies Chinese ownership as a national security concern.[4]
A temporary extension through executive action would buy time for a compromise solution. This could involve a new version of the Oracle partnership,[5] combined with additional oversight mechanisms and a restructuring of ByteDance’s corporate ownership structure. However, such arrangements would need to satisfy the requirements of the law while addressing underlying concerns raised by CFIUS (Aug. 14, 2020) (Bytedance acquisition of Musical.ly), EO 13873 (May 15, 2019) (supply chain), EO 13942 (Aug. 6, 2020) (TikTok threat), EO 14034 (June 9, 2021) (protecting sensitive data from foreign adversaries), and Pub. L. No. 117-328 (Dec. 29, 2022) (banning TikTok on government phones) about data security and foreign influence.
The likely path forward for the Trump Administration is revisiting the National Security Agreement (NSA) that TikTok previously proposed to the Trump and Biden Administrations between 2019-2021, in addition to possible legislative solutions. The proposed arrangement would place American user data under U.S. jurisdiction through a trusted third-party partnership with Oracle. However, such a solution must address fundamental concerns about ByteDance’s control over the platform’s algorithm and potential influence operations.
Ironically, as users contemplate alternatives, many are migrating to other Chinese-owned platforms like the “RedNote” app, highlighting the challenges of regulating social media in an interconnected global digital economy. This migration pattern raises important questions about America’s technology ecosystem: Should U.S. policymakers actively support domestic social media alternatives? The argument that American-owned platforms, despite their addictive nature, represent a “lesser evil” compared to foreign-controlled alternatives may gain traction.
The TikTok dilemma represents a broader challenge: how to protect national security interests in an era of digital competition. As we approach this critical juncture, one thing is clear that American policymakers are faced with fundamental questions about the balance between digital speech and national security.
[1] $1,284,533 of volume as of 1:50 pm, January 16, 2025.
[2] $3,843,734 of volume as of 1:50 pm, January 16, 2025.
[3] His amicus filing adds an intriguing twist, particularly given his previous attempts to ban the app during his presidency.
[4] The law was signed by President Biden on April 24, 2024, after being introduced on March 5, passed the House on a 360-58 vote on March 13, and passed Senate on a 79-18 vote on April 23.
[5] The Oracle partnership was described in the news as extending upon its provision of secure cloud technology in the United States to TikTok. TikTok’s “Project Texas” framework for data security relies on Oracle and a third-party inspector to “review the app source code, compile the app, and deliver it directly to the app stores to maintain the chain of custody. The app delivered to the app stores will only be able to communicate with approved systems to operate the application.”
